Global trade conditions

Since late 2023, attacks on ships in the Red Sea have sent most Asia-Europe traffic around southern Africa instead of through the canal. The detour adds roughly 10 to 14 days and burns about a third more fuel. Since mid-2026 carriers have been moving services back to the canal one at a time, so the count moves from week to week. The ships missing here show up on the Cape of Good Hope card next to this one. The number above is ships per day through the canal, compared with 2023, the last year before the attacks.

Ships that avoid Suez go around the southern tip of Africa instead. The detour adds roughly 3,000 nautical miles and 10 to 14 days to the voyage and burns about a third more fuel. Each ship spends longer on every round trip, so the same fleet carries less cargo over a year. Carriers accept that because war-risk insurance and the danger to crews in the Red Sea can cost more than the extra fuel. When Suez recovers, this number falls back toward its old level, so this card and the Suez card move in opposite directions.

The Panama Canal links the Pacific and the Atlantic and runs on fresh water from lakes that rain has to refill. When water runs short, the canal authority limits how deep ships may sit in the water and how many may pass each day. In the 2023 drought it cut daily transits to the low twenties and capped draft, and cargo backed up for months. A lower draft limit means each ship carries less, even when the number of ships stays the same. The number above is ships per day, averaged over the past week.

The Malacca Strait is the narrow channel between Malaysia and Indonesia that links the Indian Ocean with the South China Sea. Most trade between the Middle East or Europe and East Asia passes through it, including most of the crude that China, Japan and Korea import. It is shallow and crowded, and at its narrowest point under three kilometres wide. The only detours, through the Indonesian islands further east, add days. Traffic here changes little from one year to the next, so a real dip is worth noting.

Hormuz is the mouth of the Gulf. It is the only sea route out for Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and Bahrain, and for the Gulf-coast ports of Saudi Arabia and most of the UAE. Around a fifth of the world's oil and a large share of its LNG pass through shipping lanes a few kilometres wide. Pipelines to Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast and to Fujairah carry part of the crude around the strait, but LNG and most of the region's fuels and chemicals have no such route. So trouble here moves energy prices around the world, and it matters for chemicals too: the Gulf is a big producer of ammonia, urea, methanol and polymers. The card uses two measures. The ship count comes from public satellite tracking, which sees only ships that broadcast their position, and is compared with the 2023-25 average of about 90 a day. The crude figure, when shown, comes from Kpler, which also follows tankers sailing with their tracking off, and is checked by hand each week. Some Gulf cargo lands instead at ports on the open sea, such as Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, Sohar and Salalah, and goes on by road, but those ports can take only part of what normally passes through the strait.

Most container lines are keeping out of Hormuz, so much of the Gulf's cargo now comes in another way. Ships discharge at ports on the open-sea side of the strait: Fujairah and Khor Fakkan on the UAE's east coast, and Sohar, Salalah and Duqm in Oman. From there the boxes go on by truck, over the Hajar mountains into Dubai and Abu Dhabi, or across the peninsula to Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk and MSC run these land bridges, and DP World bought 700 trucks in July for the Fujairah route. Gulf material can still be shipped this way, but it arrives later and costs more, because a road leg has been added to the sea route. The number above counts cargo ships calling at those five ports, compared with the same weeks last year.

Antwerp has Europe's largest chemical cluster right on the docks, with refineries, crackers and tank farms next to the berths, so a large share of Europe-made chemicals leaves through it. Hamburg and Amsterdam cover more of the northern range. What leaves these ports shows whether European plants are running and shipping product, and strikes, low water on the Rhine or high energy costs show up here early. Rotterdam is missing on purpose: PortWatch lists the port but has never published a day of figures for it, so the card does not claim to measure it. The number is estimated tonnage leaving the three ports, from satellite ship tracking, compared with the same four weeks last year.

Houston ships petrochemicals and plastics, New Orleans ships grain and fertilizer that come down the Mississippi, and Los Angeles and Long Beach handle the Pacific side. Cheap American gas is what makes US chemicals and plastics competitive abroad, and these ports are where that shows. Hurricanes are a risk every year from June to November, and a big storm can close the Gulf coast for days. The number is estimated tonnage leaving the three ports, compared with the same four weeks last year.

Santos and Paranaguá ship much of Brazil's soy, sugar, coffee and orange juice, and the same berths handle the chemicals farming needs. Soy exports peak after the harvest, roughly from March to July, when ships queue for days for a berth and trucks are hard to find inland. Bulk goes out, and much of what comes back is fertilizer, so read this card together with the South America import card. The number is estimated tonnage leaving both ports, compared with the same four weeks last year.

Africa mostly exports raw materials and imports finished goods, and these three ports handle a large share of both. Durban serves South Africa's mines and industry, Lagos is Nigeria's main container and general cargo gateway, and Alexandria handles Egypt's Mediterranean trade, fertilizer included. Egypt is a major urea exporter, so a slowdown here reaches fertilizer buyers elsewhere. Volumes are smaller than at the big Asian hubs, so the percentages swing more from week to week. The number is estimated tonnage leaving the three ports, compared with the same four weeks last year.

Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan, neighbours on China's east coast, are among the busiest ports in the world, and much of China's chemical exports start their journey there. When the outflow slows, the usual reasons are holidays (Chinese New Year brings a big dip every year), typhoons or policy, and buyers feel it a few weeks later as late shipments and tighter allocations. The number is estimated tonnage leaving both ports, compared with the same four weeks last year.

India exports refined fuels, engineering goods, electronics, generic medicines and a wide range of chemicals and dyes, and much of its chemical trade moves through Mundra and Kandla in Gujarat. The figure above is the Department of Commerce's monthly total for merchandise exports in dollar terms, against the same month a year earlier. Adani Ports' monthly cargo volume, which includes Mundra, gives the physical side.

The Middle East's exports are mostly energy and what is made from it: crude oil and refined fuels, LNG, and the ammonia, urea, methanol and polymers made from the region's gas. In a normal year most of it leaves from ports inside the Gulf: Saudi Arabia's east coast, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, most of the UAE and Iran's main terminals. The ports on the open sea are Oman's Sohar, Salalah and Duqm, Fujairah and Khor Fakkan on the UAE's east coast, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, Aqaba in Jordan, Yemen's ports and Chabahar in Iran; when the Gulf is cut off, they are the only way out by sea. The figures are estimated tonnage from satellite ship tracking at about fifty ports across the Gulf states, Iraq, Iran, Jordan and Yemen, against the same four weeks last year.

Europe imports what it cannot make at current energy prices, and most of it lands on the northern coast at Antwerp, Hamburg and Amsterdam. A container from East Asia takes around five weeks via the Cape of Good Hope, about ten days more than via Suez. Freight into Europe is usually dearest in the autumn, when shops stock up for Christmas, and cheapest after Chinese New Year. When arrivals surge, empty boxes pile up in Europe and get cheap to send back. The number is estimated tonnage arriving at the three ports, compared with the same four weeks last year.

Los Angeles and Long Beach are the main gateway for Asian cargo into North America, Houston adds the chemical trade and New Orleans serves the Mississippi. The Pacific crossing takes roughly two to three weeks, against a month or more to the east coast through Panama, so the west coast feels changes in Asian supply first. Peak season runs from August to October, when boxes get scarce and surcharges appear, and the quietest and cheapest window follows Chinese New Year. The number is estimated tonnage arriving at the three ports, compared with the same four weeks last year.

Santos and Paranaguá are Brazil's main ports, and Paranaguá in particular is where the fertilizer lands: Brazil imports most of what its farms use, and those cargoes peak in the middle of the year, ahead of southern planting (see the fertilizer card). A ship from Asia takes four to five weeks, and one from Europe two to three. Containers can run short around harvest, when everything leaves full and comes back slowly. The number is estimated tonnage arriving at both ports, compared with the same four weeks last year.

Durban, Lagos and Alexandria serve very different markets: South Africa's industry, Nigeria's large consumer market and Egypt on the Mediterranean. Much of the continent's cargo comes through transshipment hubs, which adds days or weeks to the transit times carriers quote, and empty containers are often scarce inland. Rates usually firm toward the end of the year, when consumer stock arrives. The number is estimated tonnage arriving at the three ports, compared with the same four weeks last year.

China is the world's biggest importer of raw materials: crude oil, gas, iron ore and potash all land here in large volumes, and its chemical industry runs on them. Shanghai and Ningbo-Zhoushan take a large share, in tankers and bulk carriers as well as containers. Arrivals dip hard around Chinese New Year every year, when much of the country stops for about two weeks and factories restart slowly, and that lull is also when freight is cheapest. A sustained drop in arrivals means Chinese plants are running thinner, and export offers tend to firm a few weeks later. The number is estimated tonnage arriving at both ports, compared with the same four weeks last year.

India is one of the world's largest fertilizer importers, and much of it lands at Mundra and Kandla in Gujarat, along with crude oil and the intermediates its chemical industry uses. Buying follows the two sowing seasons: cargoes arrive before the summer monsoon around June and before the winter crop around October, and government tenders can move world urea prices. The figure above is the Department of Commerce's monthly total for merchandise imports in dollar terms, against the same month a year earlier.

The region imports much of its food, along with machinery, vehicles and consumer goods, most of it in containers. Jebel Ali has long been the hub: cargo lands there and fans out across the Gulf by feeder ship and truck, while grain and other bulk land at each country's own ports. The ports on the open sea are Oman's Sohar, Salalah and Duqm, Fujairah and Khor Fakkan on the UAE's east coast, Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast, Aqaba in Jordan, Yemen's ports and Chabahar in Iran; when the Gulf is cut off, they are the only way in by sea. The figures are estimated tonnage from satellite ship tracking at about fifty ports across the Gulf states, Iraq, Iran, Jordan and Yemen, against the same four weeks last year.